7xm What We’ll Know and When We’ll Know It: A Guide to Election Night
Four years ago7xm, it took days for news organizations to project Joe Biden as the winner of the election.
This year, a verdict may not be fast, but it should be faster. It should even be much faster in several key states, like Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Like in 2020, the vote count will still feature “blue mirages” or “red mirages,” in which one candidate builds a fleeting lead simply because mail or Election Day ballots are counted first. (Mail ballots have tended to be more Democratic, and Election Day ballots more Republican.) But this year, these mirages won’t be as extreme.
A general way to think about vote counting in American elections is that they start in the Southeast and end in the West. With that in mind, here’s what we’ll know as the night goes on, region by region (all times Eastern):
Sundown: The South (mostly)Election night will begin in the South. The polls will close in Georgia, Virginia and most of Florida by 7 p.m., while North Carolina’s polls close at 7:30 p.m.
The results should come quickly — quickly enough that these states could be very clear or even called by midnight, even in a competitive race. In each case, the early vote will lean Democratic, but not by as much as in the past. The Election Day vote will probably still lean Republican, but, again, by not nearly as much as four years ago.
With these states counting so quickly, we will know a lot by about 9 or 10 p.m., even if there isn’t a race call. There are three basic scenarios:
If Kamala Harris is clearly favored (or has won) Georgia or North Carolina, she’s in the driver’s seat. A victory in one of these states doesn’t guarantee her a win nationwide, but it would be a very good sign for her chances because neither state is presumed to be her easiest path to victory. Winning one state — let alone two — would give her breathing room to lose a key Northern state, all while demonstrating her strength in the battlegrounds.
If Donald J. Trump is clearly favored (or has won) in both North Carolina and Georgia, he’s in the driver’s seat. Victories in these states don’t guarantee victory, either, but they would leave Ms. Harris with just one clear path to victory: a sweep of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and a 270-268 squeaker. It wouldn’t be easy. Ms. Harris would have to run the table, and it may be too much to ask her to sweep all three if she’s not strong enough to be highly competitive in Georgia or North Carolina.
If Ms. Harris is highly competitive in at least one of North Carolina and Georgia, the race remains a true tossup. The race will head to the Northern battlegrounds.
A few other things to keep in mind early in the night:
Florida will report its vote extremely quickly. If Mr. Trump wins big in Florida, it won’t be at all clear that it’s indicative of what might happen elsewhere in the country. Resist the urge to extrapolate from this result. Be patient.
The polls close in most of Texas at 8 p.m. The early vote from the big metropolitan counties will report quickly, and it should be relatively straightforward. It will quickly be evident whether Ted Cruz’s Senate seat is in jeopardy, even if it will take hours for a call if it’s close.
Keep an eye on Virginia. If it’s close, it could be a harbinger of a good night for Mr. Trump.
Ohio isn’t a presidential battleground anymore, but it does have a key Senate race. The polls will close at 7:30 p.m., and the early vote will lean Democratic. Be patient; it won’t take too long before counties wrap up their counts.
Finally, I’ll be keeping an eye on New Hampshire. It’s a straightforward count, and it will be our first clue about voters in the relatively white non-evangelical North. If Ms. Harris is more or less matching Mr. Biden’s numbers (a seven-point victory statewide), it’s a sign she might also hold up in a place like Wisconsin or Michigan, even if the South is going poorly for her.
Late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning: The NorthAs North Carolina and Georgia wrap up their counts, all eyes will gradually drift to the Northern battlegrounds: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
We are having trouble retrieving the article content.
Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.
Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.
Thank you for your patience while we verify access.
Already a subscriber? Log in.
Want all of The Times? Subscribe.7xm